[TMG] influenza 2009 infect KU KPS

[Nawanan Theera-Ampornpunt]

Hmm...

Let's have a scientific discussion. Since you're also an expert in
statistics, I'm sure this would be an enlightening discussion for me.

Do you think a small number of people you met that got sick (on the bus,
on campus, etc.) is enough to have a statistically narrow population
estimate of how many people got sick in Thailand? (Key Points:
Variability, sampling error and sample size)

Do you think the people you met that got sick is a good representative
sample of Thailand's population? Don't you think there would be
selection bias because most of the Thais are spread out, not? (Key
Point: Study biases)

Seeing "sick" people doesn't necessarily mean they have influenza 2009.
Do you have valid evidence that all sick people are infected with
influenza 2009? (Key Point: Validity and measurement error)

Remember: Influenza 2009 and seasonal influenza have exactly the same
symptoms. Only that the exposure history may help and only a laboratory
test can confirm it.

I agree that the government's number may be underestimated, given the
fact that the estimate is projected from the laboratory-proven cases,
which by definition, is going to be too optimistic. But that doesn't
mean the number is way up as you suggested. Your number suggests that
across all communities in Thailand, on average, 1 in 3-4 people have
flu-like symptoms. If this were true, the number of people died from
influenza 2009 would be way up, not because it is more severe than other
flu strains, but because the nature of all kinds of influenza which
makes children, the elderly, and people with underlying diseases more
susceptible than healthy adults.


Nothing further, your honor.



Nawanan


supat at supat.eu.org wrote:
> 
> This morning all my 3 students got sick and they inform that kps lib was
> closed based on this crisis.  ku satit school kps also has several
> students sick including my son.
> 
> during i buy new super computer i found 3 ppl in microbus got sick.
> 
> so, based on my estimation, today it has 20 million TH sick on this
> matter but stupit gov said it has only 1000 ppl sick.
> 
> zxc555
> ps. ofcause i m sick of 2009 influenza too and just relief today.
> 
> 
>