[TMG] influenza 2009 infect KU KPS

[supat at supat.eu.org]

wonderful argument 55555 :)

On Tue, 30 Jun 2009, Nawanan Theera-Ampornpunt wrote:

> Hmm...
>
> Let's have a scientific discussion. Since you're also an expert in
> statistics, I'm sure this would be an enlightening discussion for me.

Yes. Because me present Reverse Threshold Model recently.

> Do you think a small number of people you met that got sick (on the bus,
> on campus, etc.) is enough to have a statistically narrow population
> estimate of how many people got sick in Thailand? (Key Points:
> Variability, sampling error and sample size)

YES IT WAS !!!
Why?

Because no scientific different between my sampling and the world 
situation. Or you have any evidence on that.

I certify sample I have is genuine unbased sample of the world.
No need to have the whole world record. Simply my unbiased sampling is 
more than sufficient.

> Do you think the people you met that got sick is a good representative
> sample of Thailand's population? Don't you think there would be
> selection bias because most of the Thais are spread out, not? (Key
> Point: Study biases)

YES!
And my sampling are truely unbiased.

> Seeing "sick" people doesn't necessarily mean they have influenza 2009.
> Do you have valid evidence that all sick people are infected with
> influenza 2009? (Key Point: Validity and measurement error)

I think I said it clearly. I have vaccine and has data that it was 100% 
effective so it was 99.99% sure that 99% of sample also 2009 infection.

> Remember: Influenza 2009 and seasonal influenza have exactly the same
> symptoms. Only that the exposure history may help and only a laboratory
> test can confirm it.

EXACTLY !!! that is strong evidence that 99% of them are 2009 not original 
strain.

> I agree that the government's number may be underestimated, given the

Sure 1000 times under estimate !!!

Why?

more than 90% at air port never being reported.
And gov lie to us at the beginning that it was 100% protection.

> fact that the estimate is projected from the laboratory-proven cases,
> which by definition, is going to be too optimistic. But that doesn't
> mean the number is way up as you suggested. Your number suggests that
> across all communities in Thailand, on average, 1 in 3-4 people have
> flu-like symptoms. If this were true, the number of people died from
> influenza 2009 would be way up, not because it is more severe than other
> flu strains, but because the nature of all kinds of influenza which
> makes children, the elderly, and people with underlying diseases more
> susceptible than healthy adults.

It was sure the died number now is 100 times over the report but they 
never being report.
That why I say all the world gov are stupit LIAR !!!

>
> Nothing further, your honor.

good 555 :)

zxc555
ps IMO TH has 60 million ppl but 600 million ppl are sick from influenza 
each year.
y?
Because on average each person sick of it 10 times a year.
That is also genuine data I have.
55555555555555
>
>
> Nawanan
>
>
> supat at supat.eu.org wrote:
>>
>> This morning all my 3 students got sick and they inform that kps lib was
>> closed based on this crisis.  ku satit school kps also has several
>> students sick including my son.
>>
>> during i buy new super computer i found 3 ppl in microbus got sick.
>>
>> so, based on my estimation, today it has 20 million TH sick on this
>> matter but stupit gov said it has only 1000 ppl sick.
>>
>> zxc555
>> ps. ofcause i m sick of 2009 influenza too and just relief today.
>>
>>
>>
>
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